Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$125.9
-$0.27
98.7¢ → 98.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $78.42 | $77.99 | -$0.42 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.77 | $19.9 | +$0.13 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $14.4 | $14.93 | +$0.53 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $12.98 | $12.86 | -$0.12 | 37% 190-317 (507) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.6 | $0.22 | -$0.38 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$78.42
Value
$77.99
PnL
-$0.42
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$19.77
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.13
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.93
PnL
+$0.53
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$12.86
PnL
-$0.12
Record
37%
190-317 (507)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.