Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$150.35
-$8.77
92.2¢ → 91¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $55.9 | $53.69 | -$2.21 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $34.35 | $34.27 | -$0.08 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $36.63 | $30.52 | -$6.12 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18 | -$0.6 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $13.63 | $13.87 | +$0.24 | 88% 434-59 (493) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$55.9
Value
$53.69
PnL
-$2.21
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$34.35
Value
$34.27
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$36.63
Value
$30.52
PnL
-$6.12
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.6
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$13.63
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$0.24
Record
88%
434-59 (493)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.