Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 54¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$155.35
-$8.73
56.9¢ → 53.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $98.08 | $93.96 | -$4.12 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $36.72 | $31.57 | -$5.16 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $11.7 | $12.12 | +$0.42 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.8 | +$0 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $6.78 | $6.91 | +$0.13 | 88% 434-59 (493) |
Invested
$98.08
Value
$93.96
PnL
-$4.12
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36.72
Value
$31.57
PnL
-$5.16
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$6.91
PnL
+$0.13
Record
88%
434-59 (493)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.