Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 61¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$265.78
-$8.97
58.2¢ → 61¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $211.62 | $203.13 | -$8.49 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $34.96 | $35.99 | +$1.03 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $13.68 | $12.65 | -$1.03 | 88% 434-59 (493) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $11.1 | -$0.9 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $5.28 | $2.9 | +$0.42 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
Invested
$211.62
Value
$203.13
PnL
-$8.49
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.96
Value
$35.99
PnL
+$1.03
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$12.65
PnL
-$1.03
Record
88%
434-59 (493)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.9
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.