Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$80.35
-$1.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $28.15 | $28.31 | +$0.17 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $23.33 | $22.8 | -$0.53 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $17.7 | -$1.1 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $7.27 | $7.07 | -$0.2 | 87% 434-63 (497) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.75 | $4.47 | -$0.28 | 30% 177-414 (591) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.15
Value
$28.31
PnL
+$0.17
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$23.33
Value
$22.8
PnL
-$0.53
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$17.7
PnL
-$1.1
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.07
PnL
-$0.2
Record
87%
434-63 (497)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.47
PnL
-$0.28
Record
30%
177-414 (591)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.