Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$169.8
-$0.54
98.6¢ → 98.2¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $97.85 | $97.39 | -$0.45 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.99 | $19.94 | -$0.04 | 39% 266-422 (688) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.7 | -$0.08 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $18.51 | $18.45 | -$0.06 | 44% 1080-1379 (2459) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $9.75 | $9.85 | +$0.11 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 153-1 (154) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.98 | $1.96 | -$0.02 | 37% 271-452 (723) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$97.85
Value
$97.39
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
39%
266-422 (688)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.08
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$18.45
PnL
-$0.06
Record
44%
1080-1379 (2459)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.85
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
153-1 (154)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
271-452 (723)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.