Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$253.75
$0.1
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $99.02 | $99.03 | +$0.01 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $83.34 | $83.42 | +$0.08 | 99% 153-1 (154) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 44% 1080-1379 (2459) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.31 | $18.3 | -$0.01 | 37% 278-476 (754) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.05 | $13.05 | +$0 | 39% 266-422 (688) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$99.02
Value
$99.03
PnL
+$0.01
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
Invested
$83.34
Value
$83.42
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
153-1 (154)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
1080-1379 (2459)
Invested
$18.31
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
278-476 (754)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$13.05
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
266-422 (688)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.