Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 10?

18 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$87.28

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 66.5¢

-15% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 20 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,647

Combined PnL-$89.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$30.47

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$2.38

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 80.2¢	$654.78	$609.2	-$45.58	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 77.2¢	$221.48	$212.97	-$8.51	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys	Noavg 77.8¢	$208.99	$196.04	-$12.95	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$73.52	$44.15	+$2.22	51% 197-186 (383)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$35.81	$36.41	+$0.6	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$44.15	$34.86	-$9.28	30% 174-414 (588)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$33.52	$33.66	+$0.14	4% 14-366 (380)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$35.62	$30.85	-$4.77	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$34.44	$29.91	-$4.53	28% 153-400 (553)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$25.92	$28.45	+$2.53	68% 1961-927 (2888)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$26.66	$26.65	-$0.01	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$28.72	$25.27	-$3.45	36% 462-806 (1268)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$14.6	-$0.2	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$14.45	$13.96	-$0.49	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$12.84	$12.99	+$0.15	4% 17-463 (480)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$13.51	$12.91	-$0.59	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$10.86	$9.03	-$1.83	31% 163-361 (524)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 78¢	$8.58	$8.03	-$0.55	80% 140-34 (174)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$12.94	$2.03	-$0.15	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 74¢	$1.34	$1.33	-$0.02	86% 32-5 (37)

241532532432

Invested

$654.78

Value

$609.2

PnL

-$45.58

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch

Invested

$221.48

Value

$212.97

PnL

-$8.51

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys

Invested

$208.99

Value

$196.04

PnL

-$12.95

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$73.52

Value

$44.15

PnL

+$2.22

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.81

Value

$36.41

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$44.15

Value

$34.86

PnL

-$9.28

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$33.52

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$0.14

Record

14-366 (380)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$35.62

Value

$30.85

PnL

-$4.77

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$34.44

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$4.53

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.92

Value

$28.45

PnL

+$2.53

Record

68%

1961-927 (2888)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.66

Value

$26.65

PnL

-$0.01

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$28.72

Value

$25.27

PnL

-$3.45

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.45

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$0.49

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.84

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$0.15

Record

17-463 (480)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$13.51

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$0.59

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$1.83

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.55

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.94

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.15

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

korda77<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 20 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.