Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 10?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$3.71

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 37.5¢

-28% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$386.55

Total Shares747

Combined PnL+$3.71

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 42.6¢	$542.72	$645.29	+$102.57	21% 132-485 (617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.6¢	$326.08	$428.4	+$102.32
└ No leg	Noavg 51.9¢	$216.64	$216.89	+$0.25
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$248.49	$265.58	+$17.08	89% 409-53 (462)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.3¢	$147.07	$138.81	-$8.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.8¢	$101.43	$126.77	+$25.34
LucerysCTR	Noavg 54.1¢	$174.86	$167.94	-$6.92	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 44.7¢	$27.97	$32.56	+$4.59	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$26.44	$26.8	+$0.35	31% 163-361 (524)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$26.85	$25.95	-$0.9	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$32.03	$20.5	-$11.53	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$23.79	$20.42	-$3.37	36% 462-806 (1268)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$18.49	$18.99	+$0.5	4% 14-366 (380)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$13.8	$15.6	+$1.8	4% 15-322 (337)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.4	+$0	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$7.82	$9.26	+$1.44	4% 17-463 (480)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$7.4	$9.2	+$1.8	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$7.09	$8.38	+$1.29	11% 28-230 (258)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$7.61	$8.02	+$0.41	28% 153-400 (553)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$43.55	$6.28	+$14.43	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$6.45	$6.27	-$0.18	30% 174-414 (588)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$542.72

Value

$645.29

PnL

+$102.57

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

Yes$326.0842.6¢+$102.32

No$216.6451.9¢+$0.25

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$248.49

Value

$265.58

PnL

+$17.08

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Both legs:

No$147.0749.3¢-$8.26

Yes$101.4342.8¢+$25.34

LucerysCTR

Invested

$174.86

Value

$167.94

PnL

-$6.92

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$27.97

Value

$32.56

PnL

+$4.59

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$26.44

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$0.35

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$26.85

Value

$25.95

PnL

-$0.9

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$32.03

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$11.53

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$23.79

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$3.37

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$18.49

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$0.5

Record

14-366 (380)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

15-322 (337)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$1.44

Record

17-463 (480)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$1.29

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$0.41

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$43.55

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$14.43

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$0.18

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.