Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on November 10?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$3.73

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 99.9¢

+29% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$109.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.87

Total Shares453

Combined PnL-$112.96

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 75.3¢	$272.81	$326.92	+$54.11	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 80.2¢	$260.02	$254	-$6.02	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 76.3¢	$91.99	$108.69	+$16.7	34% 150-294 (444)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$56.12	$63.05	+$6.93	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$53.1	$61.14	+$8.03	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$31.25	$45.13	+$13.88	31% 163-361 (524)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 85¢	$39.19	$41.59	+$2.4	6% 18-276 (294)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$30.71	$32.93	+$2.22	11% 28-230 (258)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$117.66	$25.43	-$92.23	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$17.22	$22.01	+$4.79	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$15.05	$17.44	+$2.38	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$15.56	$16.87	+$1.3	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$15.06	$16.06	+$0.99	4% 17-463 (480)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$14.95	$15.96	+$1	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 76¢	$2.66	$3.16	+$0.5	80% 140-34 (174)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$23.69	$1.91	-$7.04	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$104.58	$1.53	-$13.69	51% 197-186 (383)

Lucerys

Invested

$272.81

Value

$326.92

PnL

+$54.11

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Poligarch

Invested

$260.02

Value

$254

PnL

-$6.02

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$91.99

Value

$108.69

PnL

+$16.7

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.12

Value

$63.05

PnL

+$6.93

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$53.1

Value

$61.14

PnL

+$8.03

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$31.25

Value

$45.13

PnL

+$13.88

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.19

Value

$41.59

PnL

+$2.4

Record

18-276 (294)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$30.71

Value

$32.93

PnL

+$2.22

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.66

Value

$25.43

PnL

-$92.23

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$17.22

Value

$22.01

PnL

+$4.79

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$2.38

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$1.3

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$0.99

Record

17-463 (480)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.95

Value

$15.96

PnL

+$1

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.5

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.69

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$7.04

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.58

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$13.69

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.