Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on November 10?

19 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$35.55

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 20 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,268

Combined PnL+$36.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.85

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.58

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.1¢	$477.19	$471.83	+$17.62	21% 132-485 (617)
Lucerys	Noavg 97.4¢	$353.09	$361.72	+$8.62	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97¢	$56.56	$58.19	+$1.63	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98¢	$52.52	$53.48	+$0.96	30% 174-414 (588)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$48.92	$49.8	+$0.88	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$41.61	$42.48	+$0.87	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$34.11	$34.85	+$0.74	35% 138-259 (397)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.56	$29.94	+$0.38	5% 18-315 (333)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$29.52	$29.94	+$0.42	11% 28-230 (258)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$19.37	$20.05	+$0.68	34% 150-294 (444)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$19.72	$19.95	+$0.23	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$17.47	$17.65	+$0.19	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$15.55	$16.84	+$1.29	89% 409-53 (462)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$15.9	$16.08	+$0.18	10% 25-236 (261)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$14.18	$14.7	+$0.53	31% 163-361 (524)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.56	$10.98	+$0.42	80% 140-34 (174)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$56.82	$7.64	+$0.37	51% 197-186 (383)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$6.41	$6.5	+$0.09	4% 15-322 (337)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.04	4% 17-463 (480)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$96.9	$0.85	-$0.58	67% 3785-1901 (5686)

241532532432

Invested

$477.19

Value

$471.83

PnL

+$17.62

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Lucerys

Invested

$353.09

Value

$361.72

PnL

+$8.62

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$56.56

Value

$58.19

PnL

+$1.63

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$52.52

Value

$53.48

PnL

+$0.96

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$48.92

Value

$49.8

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$41.61

Value

$42.48

PnL

+$0.87

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$34.11

Value

$34.85

PnL

+$0.74

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.38

Record

18-315 (333)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.52

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.42

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.37

Value

$20.05

PnL

+$0.68

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.72

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.47

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$0.19

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$1.29

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$0.18

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0.53

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.56

Value

$10.98

PnL

+$0.42

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.82

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.09

Record

15-322 (337)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

17-463 (480)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.9

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.58

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 20 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.