Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on November 10?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $664 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$663.88

Combined PnL

$18.1

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$663.88

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$18.1

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.4¢	$295.57	$297.04	+$1.48	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$67.98	$68.25	+$0.27	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$67.09	$67.73	+$0.65	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$65.59	$65.63	+$0.05	31% 163-361 (524)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$29.53	$31.97	+$2.43	89% 409-53 (462)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	4% 15-322 (337)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.8¢	$367.95	$19.98	+$11.67	21% 132-485 (617)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.09	$16.09	+$0	11% 35-270 (305)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.98	$10.99	+$0.01	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.76	$10.77	+$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7.67	$7.68	+$0.02	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.49	$6.5	+$0.01	10% 25-236 (261)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$11.3	$5.9	+$1.41	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.33	$5.38	+$0.05	34% 150-294 (444)

Lucerys

Invested

$295.57

Value

$297.04

PnL

+$1.48

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$67.98

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$0.27

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$67.09

Value

$67.73

PnL

+$0.65

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$65.59

Value

$65.63

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$29.53

Value

$31.97

PnL

+$2.43

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

15-322 (337)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

241532532432

Invested

$367.95

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$11.67

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$16.09

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$0

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.76

Value

$10.77

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.67

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.