Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$119.2
$0.06
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.89 | $8.9 | +$0 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.18 | $5.19 | +$0 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.16 | $5.17 | +$0 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.89
Value
$8.9
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.