Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $606 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$606.14
-$31.58
63.8¢ → 91¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $593.71 | $557.38 | -$36.33 | 47% 655-735 (1390) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $20.68 | $24.38 | +$3.7 | 59% 1779-1227 (3006) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $16.33 | $17.04 | +$0.7 | 57% 13655-10447 (24102) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.68 | +$0.52 | 50% 1804-1784 (3588) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.68 | -$0.18 | 53% 6510-5722 (12232) |
Invested
$593.71
Value
$557.38
PnL
-$36.33
Record
47%
655-735 (1390)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$24.38
PnL
+$3.7
Record
59%
1779-1227 (3006)
Invested
$16.33
Value
$17.04
PnL
+$0.7
Record
57%
13655-10447 (24102)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
1804-1784 (3588)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
6510-5722 (12232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.