Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 41¢ · $597 held · ends Oct 31

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$596.6

Combined PnL

$168.57

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 40.6¢

+50% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$455.07

Total Shares983

Combined PnL+$188.71

No2 traders

Total Value$141.52

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$20.15

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$203.27	$368.74	+$165.48	47% 665-744 (1409)
24 241532532432	Noavg 61.2¢	$146.24	$128.22	-$18.02	59% 1800-1250 (3050)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$50.88	$74.66	+$23.22	55% 410-331 (741)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$33.18	$13.3	-$2.13	53% 6540-5754 (12294)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.3¢	$11.65	$11.67	+$0.02	50% 1825-1804 (3629)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$203.27

Value

$368.74

PnL

+$165.48

Record

47%

665-744 (1409)

241532532432

Invested

$146.24

Value

$128.22

PnL

-$18.02

Record

59%

1800-1250 (3050)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.88

Value

$74.66

PnL

+$23.22

Record

55%

410-331 (741)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$33.18

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$2.13

Record

53%

6540-5754 (12294)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

1825-1804 (3629)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.8%

40.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$133.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

233.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.