Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.0K
-$121.22
77¢ → 84.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 77¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$122.09 | 50% 1627-1615 (3242) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $316.34 | $318.08 | +$1.74 | 52% 563-526 (1089) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $44.4 | $44.1 | -$0.3 | 61% 20530-12988 (33518) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $17.28 | $3 | +$0 | 53% 6241-5478 (11719) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $8.37 | $2.16 | -$0.37 | 57% 12917-9835 (22752) |
Invested
$2,686
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$122.09
Record
50%
1627-1615 (3242)
Invested
$316.34
Value
$318.08
PnL
+$1.74
Record
52%
563-526 (1089)
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.4
Value
$44.1
PnL
-$0.3
Record
61%
20530-12988 (33518)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
273-604 (877)
Invested
$17.28
Value
$3
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6241-5478 (11719)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$0.37
Record
57%
12917-9835 (22752)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.