Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 42¢ · $87 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$87.2
$5.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $69.8 | $75.49 | +$5.69 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $29.71 | $4.38 | +$0.28 | 53% 6286-5517 (11803) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $3.9 | $3.79 | -$0.11 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $3.43 | $3.54 | +$0.1 | 45% 1814-2260 (4074) |
Invested
$69.8
Value
$75.49
PnL
+$5.69
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
Invested
$29.71
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
6286-5517 (11803)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.79
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.54
PnL
+$0.1
Record
45%
1814-2260 (4074)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.