Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 9?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$159.52

Combined PnL

-$10.22

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$158.64

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.89

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$10.13

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	No	$76.1	$76.1	-$0.05	50% 9336-9403 (18739)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$50.66	$40.53	-$0.04	46% 6900-8161 (15061)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$32.03	$32.03	-$0	69% 16766-7371 (24137)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.84	$9.98	+$0.01	47% 47595-54054 (101649)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.29	$0.52	-$7.78	21% 938-3538 (4476)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.36	$0.13	-$1.93	25% 2367-7044 (9411)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.2	$0.08	-$0.12	30% 35477-83899 (119376)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.26	$0.07	-$0.19	22% 3434-11984 (15418)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.17	$0.06	-$0.11	46% 6644-7782 (14426)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	57% 25400-18932 (44332)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$76.1

Value

$76.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

9336-9403 (18739)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$50.66

Value

$40.53

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

6900-8161 (15061)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$32.03

Value

$32.03

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

16766-7371 (24137)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.84

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

47595-54054 (101649)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$7.78

Record

21%

938-3538 (4476)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.93

Record

25%

2367-7044 (9411)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.12

Record

30%

35477-83899 (119376)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.19

Record

22%

3434-11984 (15418)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

6644-7782 (14426)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

25400-18932 (44332)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.