Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 8?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $518 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$518.31

Combined PnL

$81.84

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 99.8¢

+18% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$518.31

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$81.84

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.9¢	$135.39	$98.36	+$0.47	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 23.7¢	$25.41	$97.65	+$80.24	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99¢	$123.1	$95	+$0.64	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$49.27	$41.17	+$0.24	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$38.2	$38.33	+$0.12	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.37	$31.33	-$0.04	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31	$30.98	-$0.02	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$23.38	$23.34	-$0.04	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
balthazar<$100	No	$19.86	$19.86	+$0	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$14.92	$15.19	+$0.27	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$14.74	$14.71	-$0.02	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.88	-$0.01	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	97% 522-14 (536)

Lucerys

Invested

$135.39

Value

$98.36

PnL

+$0.47

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$97.65

PnL

+$80.24

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$123.1

Value

$95

PnL

+$0.64

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$49.27

Value

$41.17

PnL

+$0.24

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$38.2

Value

$38.33

PnL

+$0.12

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$31.37

Value

$31.33

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$30.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$23.38

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.92

Value

$15.19

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

97%

522-14 (536)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.