Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 4?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$240.1
$121.96
74.7¢ → 97¢
+30% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry | Noavg 83.2¢ | $95.65 | $112.68 | +$9.56 | 53% 3643-3266 (6909) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $62.52 | $63.7 | +$0.55 | 58% 2445-1789 (4234) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 5.5¢ | $7.09 | $38.31 | +$109.02 | 51% 3482-3360 (6842) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $23.03 | $18.51 | +$2.83 | 58% 18577-13713 (32290) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.9 | +$0.1 | 50% 473-472 (945) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $1.92 | $1.9 | -$0.02 | 40% 2066-3096 (5162) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.19 | $0.1 | -$0.09 | 20% 2469-9859 (12328) |
Invested
$95.65
Value
$112.68
PnL
+$9.56
Record
53%
3643-3266 (6909)
Invested
$62.52
Value
$63.7
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
2445-1789 (4234)
Invested
$7.09
Value
$38.31
PnL
+$109.02
Record
51%
3482-3360 (6842)
Invested
$23.03
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$2.83
Record
58%
18577-13713 (32290)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
473-472 (945)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
2066-3096 (5162)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.09
Record
20%
2469-9859 (12328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.