Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$119.69

Combined PnL

-$10.81

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$119.53

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$3.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$7.26

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.92	$39.92	+$0	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.97	$22.56	-$3.61	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.21	$19.23	+$0.02	36% 332-601 (933)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.98	+$0	34% 352-671 (1023)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.98	+$0	39% 327-521 (848)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.98	+$0.02	38% 317-524 (841)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$7.86	$7.87	+$0.02	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$2.57	$0.1	-$2.46	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.75	$0.06	-$4.79	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.97

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$3.61

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.21

Value

$19.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$7.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.46

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$4.79

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.