Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 16?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$162.51
-$4.58
96.1¢ → 94¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $48.03 | $46.57 | -$1.45 | 42% 1694-2332 (4026) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $38.78 | $37.6 | -$1.18 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $18.56 | $18.91 | +$0.35 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $19.25 | $18.7 | -$0.55 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $16.65 | $16.13 | -$0.52 | 34% 352-671 (1023) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.69 | $9.4 | -$0.29 | 28% 1103-2780 (3883) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.35 | -$0.25 | 38% 317-524 (841) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.68 | -$0.08 | 33% 83-166 (249) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $1.04 | $1.04 | +$0 | 42% 803-1100 (1903) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.79 | $0.1 | -$0.6 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
Invested
$48.03
Value
$46.57
PnL
-$1.45
Record
42%
1694-2332 (4026)
Invested
$38.78
Value
$37.6
PnL
-$1.18
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$18.56
Value
$18.91
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$19.25
Value
$18.7
PnL
-$0.55
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$16.13
PnL
-$0.52
Record
34%
352-671 (1023)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.29
Record
28%
1103-2780 (3883)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.35
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
317-524 (841)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.08
Record
33%
83-166 (249)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
803-1100 (1903)
Invested
$9.79
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.6
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.