Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 16?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 48¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$169.36

Combined PnL

$35.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$124.3

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$22.57

No6 traders

Total Value$44.64

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$13.09

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 42.8¢	$51.24	$61	+$9.75	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 48.9¢	$26.13	$27.23	+$1.1	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$23.22	$21.91	-$1.31	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 54.4¢	$21.81	$21.78	-$0.03	71% 950-388 (1338)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$14.3	+$11.75	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$7.51	$7.51	-$0	36% 332-601 (933)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.55	-$0.05	38% 317-524 (841)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$21.79	$4.55	+$14.63	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.2	+$0	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.1	$1.92	-$0.18	26% 603-1747 (2350)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.24

Value

$61

PnL

+$9.75

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.13

Value

$27.23

PnL

+$1.1

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$23.22

Value

$21.91

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.81

Value

$21.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$11.75

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.51

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$21.79

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$14.63

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.18

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.