Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 16?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 64¢ · $452 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$451.64
$50.25
57¢ → 64¢
+12% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $164.89 | $186.93 | +$22.05 | 53% 2352-2120 (4472) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $152.8 | $172.22 | +$19.42 | 54% 1238-1053 (2291) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $38.25 | $37.8 | -$0.45 | 31% 1122-2474 (3596) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $12.6 | +$1.2 | 42% 1694-2332 (4026) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $10.05 | $10.26 | +$0.21 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.55 | $10.09 | +$7.54 | 40% 2676-3963 (6639) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $9.81 | $9.61 | -$0.2 | 71% 950-388 (1338) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.79 | $6.18 | +$0.39 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $5.84 | $5.93 | +$0.09 | 38% 317-524 (841) |
Invested
$164.89
Value
$186.93
PnL
+$22.05
Record
53%
2352-2120 (4472)
Invested
$152.8
Value
$172.22
PnL
+$19.42
Record
54%
1238-1053 (2291)
Invested
$38.25
Value
$37.8
PnL
-$0.45
Record
31%
1122-2474 (3596)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
42%
1694-2332 (4026)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$10.09
PnL
+$7.54
Record
40%
2676-3963 (6639)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$9.61
PnL
-$0.2
Record
71%
950-388 (1338)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$0.39
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$5.93
PnL
+$0.09
Record
38%
317-524 (841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.