Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$141.45

Combined PnL

-$1.26

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 97.9¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$139.39

Total Shares143

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.05

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$1.43

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$39.27	$39.1	-$0.16	38% 306-500 (806)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 90¢	$69.75	$25.18	+$3.34	30% 250-582 (832)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$19.52	$19.45	-$0.07	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$19.27	$19.45	+$0.18	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$77.32	$17.93	-$4.35	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.93	$10.84	-$0.08	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 80¢	$6.12	$7.43	+$1.32	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.93	$1.28	+$0.35	14% 97-580 (677)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.77	-$1.78	41% 2656-3796 (6452)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$69.75

Value

$25.18

PnL

+$3.34

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.52

Value

$19.45

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$0.18

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$77.32

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$4.35

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.93

Value

$10.84

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$1.32

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.35

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$1.78

Record

41%

2656-3796 (6452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.