Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 16?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $49 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$49.12

Combined PnL

-$22.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$49.06

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$22.36

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.99	+$0.05	38% 323-524 (847)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$10	+$0.03	39% 334-532 (866)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.78	$9.81	+$0.02	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.25	$9.27	+$0.01	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.41	$0.01	-$4.06	28% 3305-8424 (11729)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.01	-$2.53	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.18	$0.01	-$3.08	30% 1182-2734 (3916)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.68	$0.01	-$4.77	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$63.38	$0.01	-$7.02	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	35% 358-677 (1035)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.41

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.06

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.53

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.08

Record

30%

1182-2734 (3916)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.77

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.38

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.02

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

35%

358-677 (1035)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.