Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or higher on November 16?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $382 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$382.08

Combined PnL

-$67.43

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$380.48

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.6

Total Shares517

Combined PnL-$67.62

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.85	+$0.15	99% 1758-24 (1782)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.59	$80.63	+$0.04	52% 1000-941 (1941)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.02	$0.62	-$13.4	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.16	$0.36	-$7.81	36% 381-683 (1064)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.96	$0.31	-$6.65	40% 2691-4022 (6713)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.51	$0.15	-$3.36	23% 821-2761 (3582)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.09	-$2	18% 106-495 (601)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$69.44	$0.05	-$24.73	35% 3958-7409 (11367)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$64.25	$0.02	-$9.67	28% 3345-8619 (11964)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

99%

1758-24 (1782)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$80.59

Value

$80.63

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

1000-941 (1941)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.02

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$13.4

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.16

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$7.81

Record

36%

381-683 (1064)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$6.65

Record

40%

2691-4022 (6713)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$3.36

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2

Record

18%

106-495 (601)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.44

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$24.73

Record

35%

3958-7409 (11367)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.25

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.67

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.