Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$80.45

Combined PnL

-$89.88

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares989

Combined PnL-$89.94

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.9	$79.96	+$0.06	99% 1758-24 (1782)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.95	$0.14	-$24.82	35% 3958-7409 (11367)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.34	$0.1	-$18.23	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.02	$0.08	-$13.94	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.76	$0.05	-$9.7	28% 3345-8619 (11964)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.16	$0.04	-$8.12	36% 381-683 (1064)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.96	$0.04	-$6.92	40% 2691-4022 (6713)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.51	$0.02	-$3.49	23% 821-2761 (3582)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.65	$0.01	-$2.63	26% 614-1782 (2396)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.01	-$2.08	18% 106-495 (601)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.9

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

1758-24 (1782)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.95

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$24.82

Record

35%

3958-7409 (11367)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.34

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.23

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.02

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$13.94

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.7

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.16

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.12

Record

36%

381-683 (1064)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.92

Record

40%

2691-4022 (6713)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.49

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.63

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.08

Record

18%

106-495 (601)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.