Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$232.42

Combined PnL

$16.58

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 84.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$226.47

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$17.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.94

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.47

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77.1¢	$136.11	$149.18	+$13.07	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 82¢	$29.05	$29.94	+$0.89	49% 820-849 (1669)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 78¢	$16.07	$17.72	+$1.65	38% 289-472 (761)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 78¢	$9.38	$10.35	+$0.96	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.1	$8.6	+$0.5	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.45	$4.37	-$0.08	58% 771-565 (1336)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 82¢	$3.51	$3.62	+$0.11	58% 794-568 (1362)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.18	$3.28	+$0.1	14% 93-569 (662)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 86¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	60% 796-535 (1331)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$7.11	$2.66	-$0.57	31% 229-507 (736)

cigarettes

Invested

$136.11

Value

$149.18

PnL

+$13.07

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.89

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$16.07

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$1.65

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.38

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$0.96

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.1

Record

14%

93-569 (662)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.11

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.57

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.