Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 15?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 20¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 15

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$92.67

Combined PnL

$26.81

Smart Money Entry

27.3¢ → 20¢

-27% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$77.39

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$23.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$15.28

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$50.13

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$47.69	$26.03	-$21.66	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$24.06	$21.77	-$2.29	68% 89-42 (131)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.04	$15.28	+$50.13	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$18.22	$10.16	-$8.06	41% 726-1042 (1768)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 34.2¢	$43.56	$9.25	-$11.9	31% 229-507 (736)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$6.81	$3.16	-$3.65	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$3.42	$2.61	-$0.81	49% 820-849 (1669)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$16.51	$1.6	+$25.41	31% 1085-2425 (3510)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.51	$1.15	-$0.36	52% 837-762 (1599)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.14	$1.14	+$0	58% 771-565 (1336)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.51	$0.51	-$0	60% 796-535 (1331)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$47.69

Value

$26.03

PnL

-$21.66

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$2.29

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.04

Value

$15.28

PnL

+$50.13

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$8.06

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$11.9

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$3.65

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$16.51

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$25.41

Record

31%

1085-2425 (3510)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.