Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 15?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$242.45

Combined PnL

-$1.09

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 96.4¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$241.26

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.19

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$0.87

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93.8¢	$147.78	$149.69	+$1.92	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$28.8	$28.37	-$0.43	49% 849-871 (1720)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$54.12	$17.24	-$1.88	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$12.78	$12.71	-$0.07	51% 872-825 (1697)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$11.3	$11.52	+$0.22	38% 289-472 (761)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$6.88	$6.81	-$0.07	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.12	$5.03	-$0.1	17% 92-443 (535)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$4.89	$4.99	+$0.1	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$4.79	$4.89	+$0.1	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$1.42	$0.88	-$0.54	41% 726-1042 (1768)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.19	-$0.2	31% 229-507 (736)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.26	$0.12	-$0.13	28% 1057-2761 (3818)

cigarettes

Invested

$147.78

Value

$149.69

PnL

+$1.92

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$28.37

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$54.12

Value

$17.24

PnL

-$1.88

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.78

Value

$12.71

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$0.22

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$6.81

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

merod<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.1

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.2

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.13

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.