Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 98¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$249.33

Combined PnL

-$6.72

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 98.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$249.08

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$4.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$1.78

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.5¢	$136.76	$135.43	-$1.33	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$25.35	$25.29	-$0.07	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$20.77	$20.9	+$0.13	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$36.93	$17.71	-$3.17	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$17.04	$17	-$0.03	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.23	$9.92	-$0.3	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$8.3	$8.24	-$0.07	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.66	$5.62	-$0.04	60% 796-535 (1331)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.2	$5.16	-$0.04	17% 92-443 (535)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$1.95	$1.94	-$0.02	49% 820-849 (1669)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$1.88	$1.87	-$0.01	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.2	-$1.44	18% 855-3966 (4821)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.05	-$0.34	31% 229-507 (736)

cigarettes

Invested

$136.76

Value

$135.43

PnL

-$1.33

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$25.35

Value

$25.29

PnL

-$0.07

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.77

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.93

Value

$17.71

PnL

-$3.17

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$17.04

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.3

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

merod<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.04

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.44

Record

18%

855-3966 (4821)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.34

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.