Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$111.53

Combined PnL

-$2.28

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$111.5

Total Shares112

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$2.26

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$42.54	$42.59	+$0.04	36% 268-480 (748)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$42.49	$42.45	-$0.04	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	+$0.01	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.15	-$0.01	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.28	$4.27	-$0.01	60% 796-535 (1331)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.2	$3.19	-$0.01	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.97	$1.96	-$0	58% 794-568 (1362)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.9	$1.89	-$0	58% 771-565 (1336)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.02	-$1.62	18% 855-3966 (4821)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0	-$0.38	31% 229-507 (736)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.26	$0	-$0.25	28% 1057-2761 (3818)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$42.54

Value

$42.59

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42.49

Value

$42.45

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.01

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.62

Record

18%

855-3966 (4821)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

PnL

-$0.38

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.