Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C or below on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$100.08

Combined PnL

-$32.2

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares268

Combined PnL-$32.25

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1609-24 (1633)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.41	$0.05	-$11.06	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$33.84	$0.03	-$8.54	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.93	$0.02	-$3.91	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.2	$0.02	-$3.19	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.01	-$1.63	17% 858-4055 (4913)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.51	$0.01	-$2.81	24% 788-2560 (3348)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.48	$0	-$0.47	17% 97-466 (563)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0	-$0.39	29% 308-740 (1048)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.26	$0	-$0.25	28% 1103-2780 (3883)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.41

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$11.06

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.54

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.93

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.91

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.19

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.63

Record

17%

858-4055 (4913)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.51

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.81

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

97-466 (563)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

PnL

-$0.39

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.