Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or higher on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $27 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$27.09

Combined PnL

-$20.57

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$26.99

Total Shares27

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$20.58

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.97	$26.99	+$0.01	98% 1504-23 (1527)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.79	$0.04	-$6.75	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.45	$0.02	-$6.24	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.93	$0.02	-$3.91	31% 1097-2455 (3552)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.67	$0.01	-$1.66	24% 752-2351 (3103)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	34% 329-644 (973)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.48	$0	-$0.47	17% 92-443 (535)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0	-$0.39	30% 250-580 (830)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.26	$0	-$0.25	28% 1073-2764 (3837)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$26.97

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.79

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.75

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.24

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.93

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.91

Record

31%

1097-2455 (3552)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.66

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

34%

329-644 (973)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

250-580 (830)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.