Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on November 15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$50.47
-$13.19
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $30.14 | $30.14 | -$0 | 53% 7213-6305 (13518) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $10.26 | $10.26 | +$0 | 42% 1658-2297 (3955) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.98 | +$0 | 30% 1138-2687 (3825) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $18.9 | $0.04 | -$6.73 | 28% 3241-8219 (11460) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.67 | $0.02 | -$1.65 | 25% 733-2166 (2899) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.47 | $0.02 | -$3.27 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 33% 313-636 (949) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.39 | $0 | -$0.38 | 31% 229-507 (736) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.26 | $0 | -$0.25 | 28% 1057-2761 (3818) |
Invested
$30.14
Value
$30.14
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
7213-6305 (13518)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1658-2297 (3955)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
1138-2687 (3825)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.73
Record
28%
3241-8219 (11460)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.65
Record
25%
733-2166 (2899)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$21.47
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.27
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
33%
313-636 (949)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.38
Record
31%
229-507 (736)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.25
Record
28%
1057-2761 (3818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.