Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 15?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$256.61

Combined PnL

-$8.26

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.4¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$256.39

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$5.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.21

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$3.25

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.1¢	$156.05	$154.73	-$1.32	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$32.63	$32.3	-$0.33	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$19.78	-$0.04	38% 289-472 (761)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$36.89	$17.67	-$3.21	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$11.85	$11.76	-$0.09	52% 837-762 (1599)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.92	$9.99	+$0.07	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.19	$5.15	-$0.04	17% 92-443 (535)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$3.17	$3.15	-$0.03	58% 771-565 (1336)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$1.88	$1.87	-$0.02	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.16	-$1.47	18% 855-3966 (4821)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.04	-$0.35	31% 229-507 (736)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.26	$0.01	-$1.42	25% 733-2166 (2899)

cigarettes

Invested

$156.05

Value

$154.73

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$32.63

Value

$32.3

PnL

-$0.33

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.89

Value

$17.67

PnL

-$3.21

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

merod<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.04

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.47

Record

18%

855-3966 (4821)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.42

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.