Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 3°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 77¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 14

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$206

Combined PnL

-$39.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$122.65

Total Shares584

Combined PnL-$46.5

No5 traders

Total Value$83.35

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$6.87

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$126.9	$54.56	-$17.25	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$55.75	$36.57	-$19.18	56% 1073-841 (1914)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$24.36	$25.37	+$1.01	73% 778-291 (1069)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.7¢	$40.29	$22.68	-$8.67	38% 543-874 (1417)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$22.2	-$0	30% 989-2362 (3351)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 65¢	$13	$14.8	+$1.8	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$18.02	$12.15	-$0.33	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$10.24	$8.84	-$1.4	13% 62-416 (478)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$8.14	$8.83	+$4.39	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$126.9

Value

$54.56

PnL

-$17.25

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.75

Value

$36.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.36

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$1.01

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.29

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$8.67

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.02

Value

$12.15

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.24

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$1.4

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$8.14

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$4.39

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.