Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 33¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 14

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$234.54

Combined PnL

-$106.51

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 32.5¢

-34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$216.29

Total Shares662

Combined PnL-$112.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.24

Total Shares28

Combined PnL+$5.74

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 50.5¢	$267.48	$169.63	-$97.85	56% 1073-841 (1914)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$19.74	$19.14	-$0.6	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$21.96	$12.55	-$4.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 65.7¢	$11.59	$11.64	+$0.05	73% 778-291 (1069)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$14.75	$8.38	-$6.36	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$6.6	+$5.69	30% 108-251 (359)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$4.52	$2.5	-$2.03	27% 973-2599 (3572)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$2.49	$2.49	+$0.01	38% 543-874 (1417)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$1.6	-$1.3	27% 197-540 (737)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$267.48

Value

$169.63

PnL

-$97.85

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$19.74

Value

$19.14

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$21.96

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$4.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$0.05

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.75

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$6.36

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$5.69

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$4.52

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$2.03

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.3

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.