Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 84¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$222.37

Combined PnL

-$1.27

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 84.1¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$186.07

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$0.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$36.3

Total Shares393

Combined PnL-$2.04

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$65.34	$64.8	+$0.01	19% 113-491 (604)
Lucerys	Noavg 79.3¢	$122.52	$49.86	+$3.98	37% 3509-6100 (9609)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$40.8	$39.48	-$1.32	54% 994-856 (1850)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$23.55	$22.08	-$1.47	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$18.07	-$1.73	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$14.02	$13.86	-$0.16	20% 99-387 (486)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$13.07	$12.4	-$0.67	37% 457-784 (1241)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.71	$1.82	+$0.11	13% 45-297 (342)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$65.34

Value

$64.8

PnL

+$0.01

Record

19%

113-491 (604)

Lucerys

Invested

$122.52

Value

$49.86

PnL

+$3.98

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$1.32

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.55

Value

$22.08

PnL

-$1.47

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$1.73

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$14.02

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0.16

Record

20%

99-387 (486)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.07

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$0.67

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.11

Record

13%

45-297 (342)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.7%

84.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.