Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $282 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$282.05
$10.61
74.8¢ → 79¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $217.43 | $229.71 | +$12.28 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.95 | $15.28 | +$0.33 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $14.99 | -$1.21 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $29.41 | $11.47 | -$1.12 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $10.27 | $10.6 | +$0.33 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
Invested
$217.43
Value
$229.71
PnL
+$12.28
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$14.95
Value
$15.28
PnL
+$0.33
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$14.99
PnL
-$1.21
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$11.47
PnL
-$1.12
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$0.33
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.