Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 82¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 13

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$178.95

Combined PnL

-$37.75

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 81.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$128.38

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$9.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.57

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$47.61

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$66.93	$67.7	+$0.76	29% 145-351 (496)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$20.39	$28.41	+$8.03	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$68.31	$27.65	-$40.66	59% 1169-826 (1995)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$17.12	$16.93	-$0.2	54% 1043-906 (1949)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$17.46	$11.81	-$5.65	13% 50-326 (376)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$12.4	$11.1	-$1.3	37% 464-794 (1258)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75¢	$8.31	$8.49	+$0.78	65% 4208-2227 (6435)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$6.37	$6.86	+$0.49	74% 716-248 (964)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$66.93

Value

$67.7

PnL

+$0.76

Record

29%

145-351 (496)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.39

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$8.03

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.31

Value

$27.65

PnL

-$40.66

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.12

Value

$16.93

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.46

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$5.65

Record

13%

50-326 (376)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$1.3

Record

37%

464-794 (1258)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.31

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.78

Record

65%

4208-2227 (6435)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.49

Record

74%

716-248 (964)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.