Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 3°C on November 13?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$89.78
-$70.41
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $107.94 | $26.07 | -$81.88 | 61% 1147-748 (1895) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.3 | $18.83 | +$3.54 | 13% 26-177 (203) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $18.8 | +$3.8 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $9.6 | $12.03 | +$2.43 | 40% 1346-2016 (3362) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $6.71 | $8.41 | +$1.7 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $5.64 | $5.64 | +$0 | 34% 338-670 (1008) |
Invested
$107.94
Value
$26.07
PnL
-$81.88
Record
61%
1147-748 (1895)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15.3
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$3.54
Record
13%
26-177 (203)
Invested
$15
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$3.8
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$12.03
PnL
+$2.43
Record
40%
1346-2016 (3362)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$1.7
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.64
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
338-670 (1008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.