Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$30.54

Combined PnL

-$49.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$30.29

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$49.24

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$30.24	$30.29	+$0.06	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.98	$0.1	-$18.88	61% 1153-751 (1904)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7	$0.04	-$6.96	47% 484-554 (1038)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.16	$0.03	-$7.13	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$57.8	$0.03	-$8.4	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.11	$0.03	-$5.08	28% 530-1372 (1902)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.84	$0.02	-$2.8	39% 3421-5409 (8830)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.24

Value

$30.29

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.98

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.88

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.96

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.16

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.13

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.8

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.4

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.11

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.08

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.8

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.