Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$130.75
-$0.33
98.7¢ → 98.2¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $34.67 | $34.59 | -$0.08 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.86 | -$0.05 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $27.09 | $27.04 | -$0.05 | 21% 66-241 (307) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.77 | $19.7 | -$0.07 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $10.82 | $10.81 | -$0.01 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $8.83 | $8.76 | -$0.07 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.67
Value
$34.59
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.86
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$27.09
Value
$27.04
PnL
-$0.05
Record
21%
66-241 (307)
Invested
$19.77
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
$10.81
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0.07
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.