Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 57¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$186.12
-$35.17
71.9¢ → 57¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $149.55 | $125.27 | -$24.28 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $30.59 | $22.85 | -$7.74 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $17.02 | $16.47 | -$0.55 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $16.64 | $9.86 | -$0.32 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $6.59 | $6.59 | +$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.37 | $5.08 | -$2.29 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
Invested
$149.55
Value
$125.27
PnL
-$24.28
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$30.59
Value
$22.85
PnL
-$7.74
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$16.47
PnL
-$0.55
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
Invested
$16.64
Value
$9.86
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.59
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.37
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$2.29
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.