Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 47¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$191.05
$4.3
45.3¢ → 46.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $82.15 | $82.15 | +$0 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $32.98 | $33.02 | +$0.04 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.7¢ | $29.07 | $28.8 | -$0.27 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $15.16 | $17.46 | +$2.3 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $13.03 | $14.31 | +$1.28 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $12.15 | $12.96 | +$0.81 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.36 | +$0.16 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$82.15
Value
$82.15
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$32.98
Value
$33.02
PnL
+$0.04
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$29.07
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0.27
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$15.16
Value
$17.46
PnL
+$2.3
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$13.03
Value
$14.31
PnL
+$1.28
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$0.81
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0.16
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.