Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 94¢ · $384 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$383.5
$66.1
77.6¢ → 93.5¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $232.68 | $291.37 | +$58.69 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $23.89 | $28.79 | +$4.91 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.81 | $26.08 | +$0.27 | 40% 1429-2156 (3585) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $19.19 | $25.32 | +$6.13 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $10.42 | $10.42 | +$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $5.42 | $1.51 | -$3.91 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$232.68
Value
$291.37
PnL
+$58.69
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$28.79
PnL
+$4.91
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$26.08
PnL
+$0.27
Record
40%
1429-2156 (3585)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.19
Value
$25.32
PnL
+$6.13
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.42
Value
$10.42
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$1.51
PnL
-$3.91
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.