Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$130.99
-$0.73
99.2¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $34.76 | $34.64 | -$0.12 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $30.09 | $29.9 | -$0.19 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $27.31 | $27.08 | -$0.23 | 26% 851-2483 (3334) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.73 | -$0.07 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $10.92 | $10.82 | -$0.09 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $8.84 | $8.82 | -$0.02 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.76
Value
$34.64
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$30.09
Value
$29.9
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$27.31
Value
$27.08
PnL
-$0.23
Record
26%
851-2483 (3334)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.73
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.92
Value
$10.82
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.82
PnL
-$0.02
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.