Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C on November 12?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.27

Combined PnL

-$56.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares537

Combined PnL-$56.91

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.98	$0.1	-$18.88	61% 1153-751 (1904)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.22	$0.04	-$7.18	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7	$0.04	-$6.96	47% 484-554 (1038)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.74	$0.04	-$8.52	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.11	$0.03	-$5.08	28% 530-1372 (1902)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.78	$0.01	-$2.79	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.92	$0.01	-$1.8	79% 502-133 (635)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$53.93	$0.01	-$5.71	26% 866-2483 (3349)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.98

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.88

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.22

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.18

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.96

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.74

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.52

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.11

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.08

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.78

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.79

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.8

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.93

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.71

Record

26%

866-2483 (3349)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.